What the number means
The Estimated Annual CEI Value converts public information and market data into the current annual scale of commerce each character drives. Think of it as a market index, not an accounting figure: it is recalculated as the model and its inputs improve, and it is expressed in Japanese yen (e.g. ¥204.4B ≒ 204.4 billion yen of estimated annual commerce).
Because it is an estimate, every figure carries a confidence grade and, where relevant, a stated data source and caveat. CEI does not present estimates as actual sales.
The additive six-pool model
A character’s value is the sum of six economic pools. Each pool is estimated independently from how that market actually flows, then added up — so the breakdown always reconciles to the total.
- 1Merchandising — Figures, plush, apparel, food and other goods. Estimated from marketplace presence (Rakuten / AmiAmi item data) priced at category baselines.
- 2Publishing — Manga volumes, magazines, children's books and related titles. Circulation × price, converted at a CEI attribution rate.
- 3Video & Events — TV anime, theatrical films, streaming and events. Box office and distribution, with decay applied after release.
- 4Games — Console, mobile and app titles. Worldwide / domestic game sales attributed to the IP and its characters.
- 5Trading Cards (TCG) — Dedicated TCGs plus collection cards, carddass, arcade cards and overseas trading cards. Market size × measured share.
- 6Licensing / IP — Royalty and rights income disclosed in corporate filings (IR), allocated across characters.
Search and fan attention are tracked separately as a capped Trend Proxy — a signal of momentum, not sales — and are kept small relative to the economic total so they never distort the structural value.
From franchise to character
Many figures are disclosed at the franchise (IP) level, not per character. CEI allocates an IP’s pool value to its characters using story centrality and exposure (lead / major / supporting / background), measured merchandise share, and a probabilistic allocation model that differs by pool. Adding a character never inflates the franchise total — the parts are shares of the whole.
Confidence grades (A–D)
- AAnchored to disclosed figures (official IR, audited totals).
- BCalibratable estimate based on public data (e.g. disclosed circulation, box office).
- CEstimate combining marketplace measurement and modelling.
- DProvisional / under research.
Measured vs. estimated — shown openly
For each character and pool, CEI shows whether a figure is measured (derived from disclosed sales, circulation or official totals) or under monitored estimate (the market exists and is tracked through a sourced estimate — an official figure, third-party estimate, download count or market size — but is not a measured number).
Where a market clearly exists but no usable anchor is available yet, CEI labels it a monitored-estimate candidate rather than calling it “not applicable.” The principle is simple: we do not place rough guesses to look fully covered, and we never hide what is an estimate. This data-strength label appears on the homepage pool breakdown and on each character page.
Limitations & how to use the figures
- ・Figures are estimates of annual economic scale, not audited sales.
- ・Market scope is currently mixed (some pools domestic-leaning, games worldwide); see the Japanese methodology for the full scope notes.
- ・Numbers are recalculated as the model evolves, so please include an as-of date when quoting.
For attribution and citation formats, see How to cite CEI →. The full, continuously-updated methodology (formulas, pool ledger, change log) is maintained in Japanese.